福建省典型茶园土壤硒含量及其影响因素研究

采集了福建省60份典型茶园表层土壤(0~20 cm),测定了土壤全硒和有效硒含量,分析了土壤类型、植茶年限和海拔对土壤硒及有效硒含量的影响,并探讨其受土壤理化性质的影响。结果表明,福建省茶园土壤全硒含量范围为0.22~2.20 mg·kg^-1,均值为0.73 mg·kg^-1,有86.67%的茶园土壤硒含量达到富硒土壤标准(>0.4 mg·kg^-1);茶园土壤有效硒含量为5.21~448.86 μg·kg^-1,均值为62.98 μg·kg^-1;土壤硒活化率为1.10%~31.64%,均值为8.76%,硒有效程度较低。砂砾岩和凝灰岩发育的茶园土壤硒和有效硒含量较高,紫色砂岩和河流冲积物发育的茶园土壤硒含量较低;山地草甸土茶园土壤全硒和有效硒含量最高,潮砂土和水稻土硒含量较低;成龄茶园和老茶园土壤全硒和有效硒含量较高,新垦茶园硒含量较低;中高海拔地区茶园土壤全硒及有效硒含量较高,低海拔地区茶园土壤硒含量较低。相关分析表明,茶园土壤硒及有效性主要受土壤有机质和全氮的影响,pH对有机质含量较低的红壤茶园和幼龄茶园有显著影响,有效磷对成龄茶园和中高海拔茶园有显著影响。总体而言,该区域茶园富硒土壤为发展天然富硒茶提供了物源保证,但硒有效程度不高,应针对不同类型茶园采取相应栽培措施(增施有机肥、改良剂和钙镁磷肥)来提高土壤有效硒。     

基于农田管理分区的制种玉米产量估算与限制因子评价

为了提升规模化农田不同管理分区的玉米产量,实现精准管理,该研究使用相关成分回归法(Correlated Component Regression,CCR),考虑地形因素(高程)、土壤理化性质(砂粒、粉粒、黏粒、容重、土壤含水率、土壤有机碳、全氮、全磷、速效氮、电导率)11个因子,评估规模化农田和聚类分析得到的3个管理区(M1、M2和M3)内产量的限制因子,并在不同分区内建立产量估算模型。模型验证结果表明:未分区的情况下,产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒、土壤有机碳、土壤含水率、速效氮和全氮,经验证,产量估算模型的决定系数(R~2)为0.70,标准均方根误差(Normalized Root Mean Square Error,nRMSE)为0.21。分区后,M1的产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒、黏粒、速效氮、电导率、全氮和全磷,M2的产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒和土壤含水率,M3的产量限制因子为高程、土壤砂粒、黏粒和电导率,产量估算模型的精度高(经验证,0.71R20.83,0.16nRMSE0.18)。对农田进行分区管理,并根据各管理区内作物产量的限制因素制定分布式管理策略,可以更具针对性地提升作物产量。     

河南省农业水资源脆弱性时空特征及障碍度诊断

从自然脆弱性、人为脆弱性和承载力脆弱性3个层面构建农业水资源脆弱性评价体系,运用熵值法和线性加权综合法测算了2001—2016年河南省农业水资源脆弱性,并利用障碍度模型分析了影响脆弱性的主要障碍因子。结果表明:2001—2016年河南省郑州等9市农业水资源脆弱性呈减小态势,开封等9市呈增大态势,脆弱性增速差异显著;脆弱性演变趋势可分为先升后降、先降后升、波动上升和波动下降4种类型;河南省农业水资源脆弱性空间分布集聚特征明显,脆弱度排序为豫北豫东豫南豫中豫西;河南省农业水资源脆弱性主要受到人为脆弱性和承载力脆弱性的影响,且主要障碍因子存在差异。因此,应积极加强对水资源系统人为干预,通过加大农业资金投入、优化农田水利建设水平、提高农业用水效率等,以实现河南省农业生产与水资源利用协调发展。     

GFDL-ESM2M气候模式下京津冀地区未来潜在蒸散量时空变化

为探究未来潜在蒸散量时空变化特征,该研究以京津冀地区为例,基于美国GFDL提供的GFDL-ESM2M全球气候模式,得到京津冀地区92个格点2000-2050年的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、太阳总辐射、平均相对湿度和近地面平均风速,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算京津冀地区未来92个格点的逐日潜在蒸散量(ET0),分析其时空分布特征及其与气象要素的相关关系。结果表明:未来年ET0总体呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下ET0上升速度最快,且随着时间推移增幅越来越大。夏季ET0增长速度最快,其次为春季、秋季与冬季,意味着未来ET0季节差异将愈加明显,可能出现更为严重的季节性干旱。ET0空间分布呈由西南向东北逐渐递减趋势,其中中部地区增速最快,增长趋势由中部向南北递减。不同气候情景下平均气温均呈逐年上升趋势,风速、太阳总辐射略微上升,而相对湿度下降。ET0与太阳总辐射的相关系数最大,呈由东北向西南递增趋势,其次为最高气温,呈由西北向东南递增趋势。ET0与相对湿度变化呈显著负相关,相关系数绝对值呈东北向西南递增趋势,ET0与风速相关度不明显。该研究可为农业需水预测与灌溉管理、科学应对气候变化提供基础支撑。     

基于气象要素影响的柑橘定量滴灌模型研究

为了准确估算柑橘水肥一体化的滴灌量，实现手机APP远程操控滴灌起止时间。基于广西桂林1994—2015年柑橘物候期与同期气象条件的分析，构建了桂林柑橘不同生育期土壤需水量模型及降水量等气象要素与土壤重量含水率变化的转化算法模式，给出了柑橘滴灌量技术流程。应用模型估算广西农垦国有明阳农场（南宁）柑橘种植示范园区1997年3月干旱时的滴灌量。结果表明：应用模型估算滴灌量比传统模型节水40%以上。此结果对“气象监测预报信息+规模化生产管理设施+生产信息反馈与互动”创新服务模式有积极参考意义。     

茶农绿色防控技术采用行为影响因素实证研究

利用16个茶叶主产省2 210份茶农调查数据,借助Logit模型分析了影响茶农绿色防控技术采用行为的因素。结果表明,茶农采用绿色防控技术受个人特征、家庭特征、茶园经营特征和组织与技术服务特征4个方面的因素影响,其中组织与技术服务特征因素的影响最大。具体来看,年龄、家庭人口规模和茶园规模对茶农采用绿色防控技术有显著的负向影响;农残限量标准认知、家庭年收入、组织化程度、技术培训和技术交流对茶农采用绿色防控技术有显著的积极影响。了解农残限量标准的茶农采用绿色防控技术的概率约是不了解的2倍;家庭收入每增加1万元,技术采用发生比相对增加2%;加入合作社的茶农采用绿色防控技术的概率是未加入的1.73倍;茶农参加病虫害防治培训次数每增加1次,技术采用发生比提升为原来的150%。受教育程度、打工收入占比、农药价格敏感性等因素在本研究中对茶农绿色防控技术采用的影响不显著。由此,有关政府部门需要通过增强茶农组织化程度,加强农户病虫害防治培训,降低技术使用成本等手段促进农户绿色防控技术的采用,以便实现绿色农业。     

添加芽孢杆菌对草鱼池塘中真核微生物的影响

为了研究添加芽孢杆菌对池塘中真核微生物群落结构和理化因子的影响,采用高通量测序技术分析了实验组(添加芽孢杆菌池塘)与对照组(普通池塘)水体真核微生物群落结构,同时分析了两组池塘的水体理化指标。结果表明:8、9月实验组池塘水体中TN、NH_4~+-N、NO_3~--N含量显著低于对照组(P0.05)。水体中梅尼小环藻(Cyclotella meneghiniana)、红囊藻(Hedriocystis)、蓝隐藻(Chroomonas)、丝孢酵母属(Trichosporon)和小环藻属(Cyclotella)真核微生物丰度显著高于对照组(P0.05)。实验组池塘水体真核微生物Chao1指数和Shannon指数显著高于对照组(P0.05)。实验结果证实:通过向池塘添加芽孢杆菌,可以改变水体中真核微生物群落的结构,从而实现对池塘理化因子的调节。研究结果对于降低水产养殖尾水对水域环境的污染具有一定的意义。     

Effects of agriculture,climate, and policy on NDVI change in a semi-arid river basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau

In 1999, the Grain for Green Project was implemented by the Chinese government. Since then, the vegetation of Zuli River Basin, a semi-arid river basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau, has been greatly changed. Clearly understanding the impact of natural and artificial factors on vegetation change is important for policy making and ecosystem management. In this study, spatio-temporal variations in vegetation cover in Chinese Zuli River Basin during 1999–2016 were investigated using Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Analyses of several indicators, including changes in NDVI in different slopes and land use changes and the relationships between climatic factors and NDVI change, were presented to quantitatively evaluate the effects of agriculture, climate, and policy on NDVI change. The NDVI in the Zuli River Basin increased during the study period, and the main contributors to this change were forest in 1999–2011, cropland, abandoned farmland, and grassland in 2009–2016, and land with slopes ≤ 15°. Land with slope > 15°, where the “Project” was implemented, slightly contributed to the increase in regional NDVI. In 1999–2011, the project (?98.16%) combined with climate change (?68.18%) showed negative effects on the increase in NDVI in the Zuli River Basin, but agriculture (22.28%) played a positive role in increasing this index. In 2009–2016 and 1999–2016, the project (38.45% and 35.25%, respectively), the project combined with climate change (49.83% and 46.30%, respectively), agriculture (18.61% and 23.30%, respectively), promoted increases in NDVI in the basin.     

环境因子对春季大棚早熟苋菜部分品质性状的影响

研究了塑料大棚内的光照强度、气温、地温、CO2浓度及氮肥施量5个环境因子5水平的处理组合对春季早熟苋菜栽培营养品质与外观品质的影响。结果表明,苋菜体内硝酸盐含量由低到高的次序为AB>C>D>E,其中VC含量后4者比处理A分别减少了11.7%,18.4%,31.3%和32.4%,在处理A、B内,随氮肥水平提高VC含量增加,其余处理氮水平间变化不大。花青素含量分别减少了18.6%,23.5%,39.2%和52.9%,在各处理内随氮水平提高而增加,变化幅度较大。不同处理粗纤维和还原糖含量变化呈现相同趋势:B>A>C>D>E,但不同氮水平间变化趋势两者相反。光照强度显著或极显著地影响各品质指标的变化,是春季大棚早熟苋菜栽培能否获得优质的首要因子。综合评判各环境因子组合,B组(0网1膜,平均光强17 800 lx,地温21.2℃,气温23.5℃和CO2浓度1 500μmol/mol)在施氮水平为N5(300 kg/hm2)时,可以实现苋菜的优质栽培。     

A novel clinical scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury managed by hemodialysis

BACKGROUND: No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS: A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS: One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS: Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS: Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.